Publications

Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends - 2008

 

The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 28C threshold.While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 28C threshold and a range of post-peak
emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000–2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO2 e is improbable.
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Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the IPCC ‘‘reasons for concern"

 

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that ‘‘would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system. ’’ In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 ‘‘reasons for concern’’ (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the ‘‘burning embers diagram.’’ In presenting the ‘‘embers’’ in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the
RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 ‘‘reasons for concern.’’
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Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years - 2010

 

When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries’ exposure to
climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries’ own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation. 

CAN Southern CSOs Pre-COP 16 Preparatory Meeting (Mexico City) - 2010

 

This meeting was one of the most intense discussions in a focused setting for CAN’s southern members. Last year CAN International under the Southern Capacity Building Program engaged in inter-country and regional capacity building sessions which were narrower in their objectives.  
The Pre-COP 16 Southern CSOs Preparatory Meeting was in a sense the next logical step forward in the discussions amongst Southern CSOs to strengthen their capacities and develop a joint understanding of the challenges existing in the global south. The range of expertise and backgrounds represented within the group of participants was another positive element responsible for the outcome of this meeting.

Global Climate Fund_Briefing Paper _Oxfam - Oct 2010

Climate change is already negatively affecting the lives and livelihoods of poor men and women. Yet it is estimated that less than a tenth of climate funds to date have been spent on helping people in vulnerable countries adapt to the impacts of climate change. The poor are losing out twice: they are hardest hit by climate change they didn’t cause, and they are being neglected by funds that should be helping them. Climate finance can and must be made to work from the bottom up, particularly for women smallholder farmers.  

Starting with the formal establishment of a new Global Climate Fund, decisions on climate finance governance need to set a new direction for a post-2012 era.  This paper presents a vision for a new Fund and broader finance system that is effective in meeting the scale of developing country financing needs, and is widely considered – by governments and civil societies – to be legitimate in its decision-making.  
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Presentation CANLA workshop - Negociaciones globales sobre el clima - Sep 2010

 

Negociaciones globales sobre el clima: 

Estructura, Funcionamiento y Estado Actual 

23 de septiembre de 2010 

Presentado por

Francisco Soto 

Especialista en Cambio Climático Taller de Fortalecimiento de Capacidades en Cambio Climático 

para organizaciones de la sociedad civil de América Latina y el Caribe

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Presentation CANLA workshop - Bases Scientificas - Sept 2010

(en Español)

ALGUNOS FUNDAMENTOS CIENTIFICOS SOBRE CAMBIO CLIMATICO

 

PROF. Ph.D. JOSE ANTONIO MILAN PEREZ

Una presentation sobre algunos fundamentos cientificos sobre cambio climatico que fue presentado en la taller de CANLA en Septiembre 2010.

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