Demand and supply Phase I & Phase II EU ETS

Price information

• What is the average price for Q4 2007 for EUA 2007?
• Up to Euro 18 but generally expected to be below Euro 5

• What is the average price for Q4 2012 for EUA 2012?
• Range between 10 – 30 Euros with general consensus range of 10 & 15 Euro

• What average price do you expect for CERs over the 2008 – 2012?
• Large influence by EUA Price not above Euro 25

Demand – Supplied

• Overall expected of a demand of around 600 – 700 Mton
• Mostly based to be supplied by CDM although analysts did not have clear consensus if AAU supply of Russia and Ukraine would be able to significantly contribute

• Top 3 preferred Project Types:

1. Renewable Energy
2. Land Fill
3. Industrial gasses

• Top 3 project types based on current Project Pipeline

1. Industrial gasses
2. Renewable
3. Chemical Industry & Land file

Preferences and Availability

• Based on the current approved project performance
• There is a overall under before performance of 15%
• Energy Sector – 17%
• Industrial gasses – 8%
• Waste Handling – 83%
• Energy & Waste Handling – 29%
• Waste Handling & Agriculture – 19%

• 60 to 70% of the projects in the pipeline will make it to registration
• Of the 1.2 billion in the pipeline around ±700Mt will reach the market

• Industrial gasses will contribute to around 300 Mt
• Energy Sector will contribute around  200 Mt
• Landfill will contribute around 25 Mt  
  

CARBON EXPO 2007
May 2-4