A staggering 13 billion emissions permits are left over from the first Kyoto commitment period. Hot air is looming large – and threatens the viability of CP2 and any future climate deal.
Negotiators are truly having a tough time putting the pieces for a second commitment period together. But soon they will face the enormous elephant in the room. A recent UNEP report estimates that up to 13 billion tonnes CO2 of surplus AAUs could be carried over to the next commitment period. This is almost three times the annual emissions of the EU. With the supply of hot air AAUs much higher than current reduction commitments (that are well under the 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 actually needed), carry-over would lead to no emission reductions compared to business-as-usual emission projections by 2020. As a matter of fact, CP2 commitments as they stand would likely lead to another surplus. This would be the case even if the large quantity of Russian surplus is excluded. Additionally, carbon credits from the CDM and JI that can be carried over would further lower actual emission reduction levels by 2020 by roughly 6%.
But there is hope! A proposal by the G77, which is technically sound and politically feasible in addressing this enormous loophole, could do the trick. Europe showed in Durban that it can pull its weight internationally by being the driving force behind the agreement for a new climate accord by 2015. This can’t be put at risk by domestic quarrels. The higher carbon price due to restricted carry-over could actually benefit surplus allowance holders, since it would avoid a likely price collapse after 2012.
However, ECO is deeply worried that a low ambition-laden second commitment period might emerge as a compromise. In particular, the differentiation of treatment between two types of hot air seems to be in the making. This could lead to an amendment that allows the European hot air that followed the economic crisis of 2008 to be fully carried over into the second commitment period. In particular, Brazil seems keen to allow such differentiation. ECO wonders why Brazil is so interested in helping further water down the weak European 2020 reduction target through the introduction of such a major loophole.
It was a full day for fossils Sunday at the Rio+20 negotiations. Brazil earned the First Place Fossil for a frightening new draft text. Saudi Arabia and Venezuela took Second Place for trying to save fossil fuel subsidies. The European Union, United States, and other developed countries earned another Second Place Fossil for bringing empty pockets to plans in need of financing. The Fossils as presented read:
Beautiful but totally isolated country in central Europe desperately seeks a friend with a common interest in coal. Our present so-called friends do not appreciate our tradition of carrying forward iconic things even if they are worthless. They do not understand that possessing the biggest European lignite deposit obliges us to make use of it. They even criticise our veto of EU climate ambition, which we must admit may sometimes seem like an addiction. Seeking new friends with common interests across the Atlantic or in OPEC, but preferably from the EU, so that they join us in our next veto of ambition at the June Energy Council. Mailbox: P00O
LOOKING FOR A NEW HOME for a large, Polish-speaking country. Due to biting, aggressive and possessive behaviour over coal and hot air, E.U. is looking for a new home for one of its members. Suitable for a family that does not plan to have children. Free. Mailbox: E27U
Parties: One classified FREE with every US$1 billion contributed to the GCF!
ECO received so many requests for C.B. in its first classified advert yesterday that it thought more readers might be interested in what other globe-trotting readers had to offer. We think there is something for almost everyone below, and encourage more submissions.
The LCA Moving Companyis now offering services in Canada, the US, Japan and Russia. We’ll move your QELROs and common accounting packages from Kyoto to our head office in LCA by December or you get a free trip to Doha, on us! Code R58B.
FOUND fancy and complete ZCAPs – Visionary, pragmatic and looking for their homes! Detailed and quite the know-it-alls, from everything in the economy to clean technology. Are also very helpful at assisting you reduce those hard-to-lose carbon pounds. If you think you are the developed country that has forgotten about its lost ZCAP, call us to claim it! Code ZX5C.
Rekindled Romance? Lonely European looking for a lost lover with common values. Last time we crossed paths was in 1997 on a business trip in Japan, and I have a feeling you're still around... I showed you mine, now show me yours! Code K12P
“Delegates -- feeling inadequate? Need enhancement? For immediate action, call 1-800-AMBITION today. When it comes to commitments, size matters!” Code G28T
“Middle-aged but unused AAUs searching for support to allow retirement. After 5 years of useless hanging around, we feel it’s time to let nature run its course and stop trying to change the system. Code X44T”
“Sleepless in Ottawa worried about the her man abandoning his commitments and calling his joke of a pledge ambitious. Any help to get us back to a safer environment greatly appreciated. Code C77A”
“With great pleasure and excitement, the international community is happy to announce the birth of the Green Climate Fund. Thanks to support from family, friends and colleagues to get us through a long and difficult in-vitro fertilisation process. Beyond our own expectations, there has been a huge line up of potential godparents of this little creature, and we are anxious to be able to announce incoming donations to help our new family get started.”