Durban, South Africa – It was the busiest Fossil ceremony yet at COP17. New Zealand took third for opposing the Kyoto Protocol. Japan, Canada, and Russia earned second for their own lack of KP commitment. And the United States came in first for failing their 2 degrees C agreement. Luckily, the Africa Group earned the first Ray of the Day in Durban for consistent, constructive progress. If only the negotiations were so productive. The Fossils as presented read:

“New Zealand takes 3rd place in today's Fossil of the Day for hardening its stance on the Kyoto Protocol. In the last 24 hours, New Zealand's previous conditional support of a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol appears to have become outright opposition. However, New Zealand has declined to answer questions or otherwise clarify its position on this issue, leading to ongoing uncertainty.”

"Japan, Canada, and Russia earn the 2nd place Fossil. We heard today and yesterday from all these ministers repeating their position on rejecting the 2nd commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol.

For what are they coming to Durban? Didn't they see people with I love KP T shirts? They are the ones who block progress on the AWG-KP discussion for a long time, and that makes the Durban agreement more difficult now. As one delegate said, they are not leaving Kyoto to make things better, but worse.

As a response to global climate change, and as big emitters, leaving Kyoto is totally irresponsible."

"The United States of America wins the 1st place Fossil. The COP is not even over, and the United States has managed to secure what ought to be the Fossil of the 21st Century. Why? Well, not only are they the largest emitter of greenhouse gas pollution in history, not only have they occupied more atmospheric space than any other country, not only have they got the most paltry emissions reduction pledge for 2020, not only did they renege on ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, but they are now reneging on their commitment to keeping warming below 2 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures.

In yesterday's press briefing, Todd Stern was asked to clarify reports that he had described the 2 degree goal as “aspirational.” His answer? That knowing ahead of time that we will overshoot the warming limit that the IPCC has identified as the point after which the globe and all of its people are thrust into out-of-control climate change did not amount to 'some kind of mandatory obligation to change what you’re doing, whether you are in the United States or Europe, China or wherever you might be…'

For these comments, which amount to a callous disregard for the future lives and livelihoods of people everywhere… for repeatedly stating at this meeting that no one should increase the ambition of their pledge… for their willingness to throw away the last opportunity we have for keeping the two degree goal within reach, the United States earns what ought to be the title Fossil of the 21st Century."

"The Africa Group earns a Ray of the Day. At this Durban COP/CMP the Africa Group has clearly made a big effort to be proactive and progressive. The Africa Group have put forward proposals that would reduce the loopholes that threaten to undermine mitigation pledges from developed countries. Africa Group have put forward proposals to improve the environmental integrity of accounting in land use and forestry (LULUCF) by limiting free forestry credits to Annex 1 parties and significantly reduce the ‘hot air’ (carried over AAUs). (of course extinguishing it altogether would be best!). Yesterday the Africa Group put forward a proposal under shared vision to establish a process to address equity, which if it is teamed with a commitment to agree a peak year of 2015 and a long term global goal to reduce emissions by 80% by 2050 could help unlock negotiations here, and also encourage country specific longer term ambitious mitigation actions."
 

Pelenise Alofa
President
Kiribati Climate Action Network
Kiribat

What does it mean to be in love? Love is a four letter word that makes the world go round…makes people go crazy? I believe that love is a word that will conquer all because it breaks all barriers and does not discriminate.  I love KP (the Kyoto Protocol). Why? Because KP loved me first.  He is my pillar to lean on; he made me stand tall, he gave me freedom, he prepares my path to walk on.  I cannot help but love KP. And I gave my all to be in this relationship with KP. I also realize that KP is not perfect like everyone else, so I accept KP the way he is and am prepared to work with KP to strengthen, empower and grow together in harmony.

I admire KP because he is faithful and the only one that gave me a legal binding agreement to live together.  He is a strong advocator for a clean environment because he wanted our children to grow-up in a healthy home.  He tells people to reduce and to stop pollution.

My challenge today is that I want a forever relationship with KP, but the industrialized world wanted a short life for KP. They think that he is not perfect, he should be kicked out for he is not worthy to have around.  Some think that I should shorten my relationship with him (to have a second commitment). But how could I do this when KP has never failed me. He has always been there for me…he has never changed.  

Today, especially this week, I stand with some of my friends and families (all NGOs and AOSIS) in support of KP. KP is on the verge of termination.  His life is being weighed in a balance.  I cannot save KP alone….I need  help from everyone to give me a chance to love him forever.  KP’s love encompasses all, not just me but all my friends and families and the whole world.  I wish we could wake up and see the beauty of his love.  I am prepared to tell the world that I could not stop loving KP.  I am wearing my T-Shirt to show everyone that no matter what….KP is still my love and my future.  And I am shouting and pleading to the world to give him a chance to live.  I am hoping and praying that Durban be a home where KP finds life!
 

Just in time for the arrival of ministers, we have removed the fuzziness from our loopholes chart. Current loopholes could easily negate all Annex 1 pledges and in the worst case leave plenty of left-overs to nibble on during a third commitment period. A couple key examples will suffice.

According to UNEP, surplus AAUs from the first commitment period amouns to 9-13 Gt CO2e. Given that current Annex I pledges amount to about 18 Gt of emissions reductions, it almost goes without saying that this loophole needs to be closed if we want to stop tinkering at the margins and start getting serious about 2°C.

The two countries with most hot air are Russia and Ukraine. To entice them and other economies in transition to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, they were allowed to keep emissions to 1990 levels.

It seemed cheaper at the time to take out a huge loan on the atmosphere, and now like a subprime mortgage this is coming back to haunt us.

Both Ukraine and Russia have made 2020 pledges that are above business-as-usual projections. These weak targets could add another whopping 4 Gt of ‘hot air’ until 2020.

We agree that banking can provide an incentive for early action, but that only holds true if the pledges are deep enough to require countries to go substantially below their BAU.

And then there’s New Zealand. Climate Tracker rates their commitment for 2020 as ‘inadequate’, the lowest ranking a country can get. On Friday, New Zealand won a Fossil for its efforts to water down the integrity of market mechanisms. Sorry, this does not look like ‘over achievement’ to us.

But don’t cheer too quickly if you’re from somewhere else in Annex I. Only five countries did not share the dubious distinction of being rated  ‘inadequate’ by Climate Tracker. 

May we remind all delegates: your country may get away with ruses and ploys in the world of politics. But nature does not go for accounting tricks: it is the future of your own children you are gambling away.

The legal options discussion has come up with at least one that ECO approves. Option 1 decides to develop a Protocol or other legally binding instrument under the Convention based on the Bali Action Plan and the Cancun Agreements, with negotiations starting in 2012 and in place by 2015. Excellent!

However, the rumour is that the US, India and China have opposed it. ECO shares India and China’s love of the Kyoto Protocol and their devotion to a second commitment period, but is dismayed by the potential rejection of the lovely Option 1.

ECO has long considered itself soulmates with India and China – based on mutual deep respect for a rules-based system with common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. If those Parties are really serious about a binding second commitment period they should also constructively engage to ensure a mandate at Durban that will build on the second commitment period.

Rather than taking a rigid stance in the legal group, India and China should move in line with the press comments they have made stating they are receptive to new ideas and looking at solutions with an open mind.

Of course, responsibilities should be based on equity and CBDR+RC as embedded in the Convention. Rather than being a basis for obstructing progress, however, this should be the basis to work towards a legal outcome. It is imperative that all Parties should extend their views beyond the short term for the sake of the planet.