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Memo to Annex I Delegates

Your government signed up to the Bali Action Plan. By doing so, it agreed that developed countries would make commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the 25-40% range by 2020 (even though science showed the need for cuts to be above 40%).

That should be your benchmark for ambition, not developing country actions. Your government also agreed that developing country actions were to be enabled and supported by finance provided by developed countries.

If your instructions here say something different, you are at the wrong negotiations. Please check that you have been given the right instructions and that you are indeed in the right building in the right city. The last time we checked, the World Trade Organisation was still headquartered in Geneva.

Youth Sound the Alarm

Today the international youth delegation will sound the alarm to the world, declaring “no confidence” on the road to Copenhagen. A young person from every continent will join together to say they are not being dramatic. They will state what they see as obvious; what is likely to come out of Copenhagen will not secure their future.

But they have not given up hope. The youth believe that an acceptable outcome from Copenhagen is still possible. Specifically, they would like to remind delegates (once more) that to secure the survival of all nations and peoples, global warming must be kept below 1.5 degrees; this means stabilising CO2 in the atmosphere at 350 ppm.

But since none of the Parties here seem to want to step up and lead to this, it is time for someone else to show climate leadership.

Today, a new way will be proposed. The youth will lead. Please follow.

At a press conference at 1.30pm today, the youth will categorically remind leaders what an inadequate outcome in Copenhagen would mean to the nations of the world. It will then outline steps that must be taken to achieve a deal that puts everyone on the road to a secure future. They will show how youth all over the world are already taking action to achieve this future and are coming together to solve the climate crisis. They will show what it means to lead!

Tick Those Kyoto Boxes

It is high time that certain rules and issues under the Kyoto Protocol get resolved if countries are to complete them by Copenhagen. Some of these have been discussed for two years or more and Bangkok needs to bring these to a close. After all, the more time spent talking about base year, for example, the less progress there is on discussing level of ambition.

ECO urges parties to tick these boxes in the three remaining days of Bangkok:

Aggregate target of at least -40% from 1990 by 2020

Developing countries are stepping up with their action and industrialised countries need to do the same. You made a pledge to limit warming to 2oC, remember?

Five-year commitment period

Shorter commitment periods mean matching targets to the latest science. Parties backing an eight-year commitment period will have to wait six years between the IPCC’s fifth assessment report and the start of commitment period three.

A mid-term review ending no later than 2015

To ensure that the best science is reflected as soon as possible, a review of commitments in the second commitment period would make sense, immediately following the IPCC’s report.

1990 base year

Come on Canada. Are you really going to hold up 191 countries on this issue just to try to “hide” your embarrassing emission increases since 1990?

Expressing quantified emission targets in percentages

Here again, Canada is holding up progress. Japan is the only other country to not know whether targets should be in percentage decreases or tonnage decreases. Japan’s government is barely a month old. What is Canada’s excuse?

As some Parties have commented, using existing Kyoto guidelines just make things easier. Resolving these here will make the road to Copenhagen not quite so steep.

IEA World Outlook: Our Planet is Worth Saving

The benefits of taking serious steps to solve global warming far outweigh the costs, says the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World Energy Outlook 2009 Climate Change excerpt report released yesterday.

A tool for the IEA’s regular projection of global energy use and global warming pollution, its report this time is particularly significant as the IEA has often been criticised for inflating costs and underestimating benefits. In this instance, the IEA used a measure of 450 ppm when the latest science shows the world needs to find a way to stay below 350 ppm to avoid even costlier effects of climate change. Hence, the IEA’s findings are actually quite “conservative” which make them even more compelling.

The IEA report provides the first analysis to account for the global impact of the financial crisis on energy emissions and the first time that they broke down their 450 ppm scenario on a country-by-country basis. Looking at 2010 to 2030, the report found:

•  A total additional investment of $10,500 billion will be needed to bring global emissions slightly below current levels

•  Savings in energy costs will be $8,600 billion

• Reduced costs of local air pollution will be  $40 billion in 2020 and $100 billion in 2030

• Every year of delay will increase the energy sector’s mitigation costs by $500  billion.

Measures that provide economic benefits in the medium term will already yield positive results for the climate. Yet, it has to be noted that for staying below 2oC with good certainty, actions greater that those estimated by the IEA are required. Even so, based on its analysis it is fair to say that costs will remain reasonable compared to the massive benefits of taking action.

Other findings of note state:

If we do not take action we are headed for a 6°C world (a 1,000 parts per million one)

We can get onto a path to solving global warming with the right investments. Clearly it requires a large investment and political focus to drive these results but it pays off. Energy efficiency is the dominant source of reduction (65% of the reduction in 2020), followed by renewables (17% of the reduction).

Oil imports are reduced. In the industrialised countries imports are reduced by 7 million barrels per day in 2030 below what they were in 2008; in China and India oil imports are lowered by 10%. These kinds of energy security benefits and consumer savings drive tremendous public support for climate action in many nations.

Big reductions in local air pollution as a result of taking action on global warming pollution. In 2030, sulphur dioxide emissions are 29% lower, nitrous oxide emissions are 19% lower and particulate matter is 9% lower. This saves $200 billion in 2030 for the cost of pollution control and lessens the impact of smog and other air pollutants that contribute to asthma, death and lost work days (just to name a few).

Hence, it is loud and clear that taking action on global warming at Copenhagen is a good investment for the world – the balance sheet is positive. The IEA’s new analysis adds to previous assessments which stated that addressing global warming saves countries money compared to continuing with the current business-as-usual pathway. And this does not include the costs of global warming impacts which will tip the balance sheet even further in favour of taking action.

The IEA’s report shows that addressing the climate challenge can reap financial benefits. As a clear and strong outcome in Copenhagen will unlock this potential, ECO calls on world leaders to focus on driving these solutions.

CAN Presser: Progress is slow, developed nations must step it up

Today's press conference updated media and CAN partners on how negotiations are going at the UNFCCC climate negotiations underway in Bangkok, Thailand.

Speaking at the press conference were Tove Ryding representing Greenpeace International, Angela Anderson of US CAN and Wael Hmaiden from IndyAct.

Ryding reported that the negotiations are not accelerating by half the speed that the effects of climate change are. She outlined two major problems contributing to the slow pace. The first is a practical one, in that the text of the agreement remains too unstructured to be useful. The goal of the negotiations here in Thailand is to see progress in paring down the international climate treaty to be considered by world leaders at the world summit scheduled for December in Copenhagen.

Earlier in the week CAN representatives hoped to see the negotiating document pared down to 50 pages, but while some progress has been made, that goal has not been reached.

The second major problem Ryding outlined was a political one. Developed nations are not moving quickly enough to firm up commitments to significant greenhouse gas emissions targets and transfers of funds to developing nations to assist them in  developing clean energy options. On the other hand, Weal Hmaiden from IndyAct reports that developing countries like China, Indonesia and Egypt have signaled that they are willing to deviate from business-as-usual and make stronger commitments to greenhouse gas reduction targets.

"Looking at the big picture there has been a little movement," said Hmaiden. "This little bit of development has come from the developing nations. So the ball is now in the hands of developed nations." Hmaiden reiterated that two main points developed nations must address this week are increased commitments to reduction targets and a soild financing package.

US CAN's Angela Anderson gave an update on the political landscape in the United States, highlighting two recent positive developments. The first is the introduction last week of a Senate clean energy and green jobs bill sponsored by Senators John Kerry and Barbara Boxer. The second is the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recent announcement that it would move to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from hundreds of electricity production plants and other major industrial polluters.

While Anderson was somewhat optimistic she was quick to point out that the "million dollar question remains... will these two tracks help us get a fair, ambitious and binding deal in Copenhagen."

Check back on Eco-Digtial regularly as we report out on the negotiating road to the world summit on climate change scheduled for December in Copenhagen.

100 Asian Youth Travel to Bangkok to Call for Climate Action

Youth Outside the UN

Delegates may have taken Sunday off, but youth from across Asia were busy organizing to shake up the negotiations and demand action from world leaders.

Nearly 100 youth from over 10 Asian countries joined the 350.org Asian Youth Climate Workshop last weekend to learn about the climate crisis, the UNFCCC, and prepare to create a breakthrough moment on the Road to Copenhagen: a massive day of action on October 24 with thousands of events at iconic places around the world. The workshop was also supported by Rainforest Action Network, Greenpeace Solar Generation, TckTckTck, and the People's Action on Climate Change.

“This is the first time youth in Asia have come together to really focus on building  a movement to push for a strong international climate treaty,” said Abe Woo, 350.org Southeast Asian Field Organizer. “We’ll not only be sending a wake-up call to world leaders on 24 October, we’ll be launching a lasting movement for change.”

Participants included the leaders of a growing network of youth climate organizations, including the China Youth Climate Action Network, the Malaysian Youth Climate Justice Network, and Nepali Youth for Climate Action. For some students, however, it was their first time participating in a workshop on climate change, a march, and the UNFCCC negotiations.

“I’ve been so inspired this weekend,” said Jesse James Marcellones from the Philippines. “I think we’re all going home with a new sense of energy and determination.”

That energy will be put to the test over the next 18 days. On 24 October, youth across Asia will join people of all ages around the world for the International Day of Climate Action to call on world leaders to sign a treaty in Copenhagen that reduces the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere below 350 parts per million.

In order to drive the 350 number home, students will be riding 350 bicycles through downtown Hanoi, hanging a 350 banner on the famous Krabi cliffs in Thailand, and diving underwater with 350 banners to endangered coral reefs off the coast of Malaysia. Other highlights from around the world include actions on Mt. Everest, Israelis, Palestinians and Jordanians joining together at the Dead Sea to form a giant 3, 5, and 0, and President Mohammed Nasheed of the Maldives leading 350 of his citizens in an underwater protest off his sinking island.

The 350 target is now supported by leading scientists, including Dr. James Hansen and Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, 90 of the world’s most vulnerable countries, and hundreds of organizations around the world.

“Look, as youth, we know our survival is at stake,” said Khairun Nisa of Malaysia. “If Manila is underwater and the glaciers are melting at 387 parts per million, why are world leaders talking about turning the dial up to 450 ppm? Science and justice demand 350, so that’s what the youth will be working for.”

Saudi Arabia Awarded Fossil of the Day for Oct. 5th

fossil of the day

CAN International gave its Fossil of the Day award to the following countries judged best at blocking progress over the past day of negotiations.

First Place: Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia stated today that there was no need to include figures under the Shared Vision text. Apparently, a simple reference to the "ultimate objective of the Convention" is enough to set a clear goal for us to achieve. Saudi Arabia also suggested a new understanding of vulnerability which would encompass and emphasize economic vulnerability alongside vulnerability to climate impacts. We award Saudi Arabia the first place fossil for this attempt not only to weaken global goals but also to undermine the precedence of countries highly vulnerable to the physical impacts of climate change.

Second Place: Poland

Poland comes it at second place for comments by Finance Minister Jan Rostowski that it is "totally unacceptable that the poor countries of Europe should help the rich countries of Europe to help the poor countries in the rest of the world." Poland needs to get a little perspective on the concept of a poor country: although certainly not as wealthy as some EU Member States, Poland is in the wealthiest 25% of countries globally. It also receives substantial financial support from the richer EU Member States - something they might wish to re-consider if all Poland contributes in return are unhelpful and ethically dubious interventions in the climate debate.

Third Place: New Zealand

In today's discussion on emission reductions in the AWG-KP, New Zealand helpfully explained to Parties that unless they are allowed unlimited offsetting in their next commitment period, they would be forced to move towards a target of zero (!) by 2020. In other words: Unless New Zealand is allowed to avoid reducing their own emissions, they will refuse to reduce any emissions. For this, New Zealand receives a well deserved fossil.

The Climate Action Network (CAN), a coalition of over 450 NGOs worldwide dedicated to limiting climate change to sustainable levels, regularly judges and presents three ‘Fossil of The Day’ awards to the countries who perform the worst during the past day’s negotiations at UN climate change conferences.  The Fossil-of-the-Day awards were first presented at the climate talks in 1999, in Bonn, Germany.

March for Climate Justice

picbw

Around noon today, 2,000 people from the Asian Peoples Solidarity for Climate Justice will march from Peace Park to the United Nations ESCAP building.

Their intention is to raise awareness within Thailand and globally of the need for a fair and safe agreement on climate change in Copenhagen.

They will be joined by the Urban Poor Coalition which is highlighting the impact of climate change on urban poor communities. ECO understands that a paper-mache world and an hourglass, representing time for action is slipping away, will accompany their powerful message.

They will arrive here around midday.

Here's some video from the march:

[Article published in Climate Action Network's Eco Newspaper, Oct. 5, 2009 from Bangkok, Thailand UNFCCC negotiations - full PDF version here]

Show us the Emissions

As ever in the arcane world of Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry LULUCF negotiations, progress towards a shorter text this week has not necessarily made it easier to understand. ECO has even caught whiff of some positive changes, though it is hard to get more than a whiff when everything is behind closed doors.

There is still something smelly in the draft text and it is hiding behind a bland name – projected baselines for forest management. Here is how it works: A Party tells you what its emissions from forest management will be during the commitment period and then will only be given LULUCF credits or debits if actual emissions are different from this projection.

ECO is confused (this is LULUCF after all). Depending on what level these “projected baselines” are set at, this could mean Parties might never have to account for their logging emissions. A country can pretend that its emissions from forest management are going to increase and not incur any  debits, as long as this increase was predicted ahead of time. ECO shudders to think what this type of approach would mean if applied to all sectors.

Luckily, not everyone is behind this ruse. Past submissions from Norway and Switzerland have expressed a preference for accounting for changes in emissions from a historical level. Other countries may be out there that support such an approach, but they are hard to see; hidden inside the EU bloc on this issue. ECO calls those Parties to step out and identify themselves.

Is it any wonder, with ideas like this still on the table, that the G77 and China are considering how to cap credits from the entire LULUCF sector?

Some Progress: More Action Needed

ECO was excited to see streamlined adaptation text emerging over the weekend, with content on almost all fundamental points. In addition, the Co-Chairs expect to have a shorter text by the end of the week.

Based on the contact group discussions, there is convergence between Parties on “practical delivery” but divergence on some vital areas. These include scale of finance for adaptation, additionality of finance to existing overseas development assistance (ODA) targets, a rights-based approach, and vulnerability and prioritisation for support.


ECO however is troubled by response measures.

These cannot be part of the adaptation component as response measures are not about adapting to climate change but about the spillover effects of measures to mitigate climate change.

It is also worrying that the focus of Annex I countries is on planning and delivery for adaptation. Non-Annex I countries have clearly articulated in session after session that the greater focus should be on action on adaptation.

The text on adaptation for Copenhagen must incorporate six key points.

Firstly, the fundamental principles: prioritise support to the most vulnerable people and countries; promote a rights and community based approach to adaptation; and incorporate transparent, participatory and inclusive decision making at all levels. Crucially, adaptation must also recognise the value and importance of healthy ecosystems.


Secondly, financial support must be both predictable and reliable, and result in regular and adequate flows. ECO believes reference to finance delivery must remain in the adaptation section, and supports strong references to adaptation in the main finance section.

Thirdly, the subsidiarity principle should apply. Countries and communities should decide what is needed to enable them to adapt, not developed countries or multilateral agencies.

Fourthly, the agreement must include a comprehensive approach to building resilience. There should be a stronger focus on addressing underlying risk factors for vulnerability, such as poverty and marginalisation.

Fifthly, a climate risk insurance mechanism should be initiated with two components. A fund for high-level, climate-related shocks financed by developed countries (to cope with disasters as just seen unfold in the Philippines and India), and technical and financial support for setting up and operating pro-poor micro insurance schemes.

Finally, there must be provisions to address loss and damage from irreversible large-scale impacts of climate change. To address this issue, Parties need first to recognise that such impacts are likely, especially if strong, science-based emission reductions targets are not achieved.

ECO is pleased to see reference to action on adaptation starting “now, up to and beyond 2012.” Parties must actively negotiate on these areas over the coming week. But the right words alone are not enough; brackets in the text highlight differences of attitude. Annex I Parties must recognise that financing for adaptation is not ODA. It is reparation for damage done - the adaptation deficit caused by their combined lack of mitigation action so far.

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