Blog Posts

Scotland breaks the 40% barrier

What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Scotland? Tartan? Golf? Scotch whisky? Now there's something new -- legally binding emissions cuts of 42% by 2020. Scotland has committed to reduce its emissions by that level and 80% by 2050, all relative to 1990 levels. Scotland has also pledged to make at least 80% of these cuts within Scotland and, an important innovation that should be emulated by other Parties, to report annually on all its consumption based emissions as well.

How is Scotland planning to achieve such heroic feats, despite being almost as cold as Canada or Russia, and having nearly a many sheep as New Zealand? You can find out directly from the source: the Scottish Minister for Climate Change, NGO and business leaders will explain how they plan to do it on Tuesday at 9 am in Room 5. ECO doesn’t want to steal the Minister’s thunder, but we can reveal some clues involving renewable energy, improving the energy efficiency of buildings and better public transport. And another hint for delegates in Annex I: take note, it’s not rocket science!

International Day of Climate Action rocks the world

As 350.org's International Day of Climate Action winds down, photos are continuing to stream in to the 350.org website, showing massive numbers of actions in countries all over the world.  Photos range from a single woman standing in the Ishtar Gate in Iraq to a circle formed in front of the White House.

The day of action even got heads turning in New York City's Times Square, where electronic billboards were shining 350 for the world to see.  (more Times Square footage here)

In addition to taking over Times Square, the day of action also seems to have taken the media by storm as well.  Google News listed the event as its number one news story for a good portion of the day, the New York Times featured a slideshow and story on the front page of its website, CNN ran a story, ABC ran a story that was picked up around the world, etc etc etc.  In short, the world took notice.

As the sun sets on the amazing day that was October 24th, eyes are turning to Barcelona, where the next UNFCCC negotiations will be taking place, November 2 -6.  Stay tuned to ECO-digital for updates from Barcelona.

350 Global Day of Climate Action on October 24th

CAN member 350.org, in close collaboration with a large number of partners, has organized close to 5000 actions in over 180 countries around the world on Saturday, October 24th, calling for immediate and aggressive climate action.  It figures to be one of the largest global days of action of all time, on any issue, and looks to provide a boost of momentum in the lead up to Copenhagen.

In the buildup to the event, the USA Today published a column by former  Anglican archbishop of Cape Town and Nobel Laureate Desmond Tutu, endorsing the event and its goals.  In it, Tutu writes, "In South Africa, we showed that if we act on the side of justice, we have the power to turn tides. Worldwide, we have a chance to start turning the tide of climate change with just such a concerted effort today."

Bill McKibben, Founder and Director of 350.org, published an op-ed in the Boston Globe on Friday, as US President Barack Obama prepared to deliver remarks in Boston at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  McKibben reminds readers, "Global warming is different from almost every other problem we face. The negotiation that really counts is not between Republicans and Democrats or industry and the greens, or even between the United States andChina. The real bargaining is happening between human beings and physics and chemistry, and that’s a tough negotiation."

For more information on the Global Day of Action, visit the 350.org website, where you can find an activity in your area.

Scared of Commitment?

ECO is sure many delegates here have worked long into the night preparing an important paper for their political bosses. And we are sure many have also seen that same paper sit in in-trays for months without anyone doing anything about it.

Well, imagine how you would feel if you are the IPCC facing a six-year wait after all that hard work to finish the crucial Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2013/14, and the beginning of a third commitment period in which countries will actually be able to respond. It is like asking a doctor for a full check up even if you have no intention to take the medicine or change your diet, no matter what they say.

None of us has a monopoly on knowledge and we all need to seek the best advice available. ECO reminds delegates of the core message of the IPCC in its last report – developed countries need to cut emissions by 25-40% by 2020 from 1990 levels for a chance to keep warming to 2.0 to 2.4oC.

In this regard, ECO hopes AR5 will create pathways for the world to keep global warming under 1.5oC and greenhouse gases under 350ppm. The world must be ready to respond quickly.

Surely a six-year gap between the IPCC report and response is unacceptable. ECO hopes those Parties pushing for an eight-year commitment period – including Switzerland, Canada, Iceland and Saudi Arabia – will go home and rethink their position before Barcelona.

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Dating and the Kyoto Process

In her blog entry on Wednesday, young Negotiator Tracker from India, Leela Raina, specifies 10 reasons why dating a male from an Annex I country does not appeal to her. A closer read will find some uncanny resemblance between her decision and the ongoing climate negotiations.

1. He is not willing to commit

Translation into negotiation language: Wants to shift emissions baseline from the year 1990 to 2005.

2. He takes more space in the relationship

Translation: Has a massively higher proportion of pollution.

3. He refuses to finance dinners

Translation: Can fund local solar projects but needs my help to scale up activities.

4. He hates my mother

Translation: Does not like principles and conditions imposed, and will not ratify them at any cost.

5. He does not let me use the TV remote or the computer

Translation: Makes it difficult to transfer technology

6. He would not save me if earthquakes or flash floods take place

Translation: Not reaching out with support for adaptation.

7. He does not follow through and is indecisive

Translation: Has different views all the time?

8. He is possessive and wants daily reports

Translation: Wants MRV on NAMA.

9. He has such a consumption-oriented lifestyle

Translation: Has an unsustainable lifestyle.

10. He would not make a good father

Translation: Does not care about protecting the environment for future generations.

For Leela to gain interest in Annex I men, their countries first need to play a more positive role in the negotiations. She asks: “So what do you say, dear Annex I negotiators? Are you willing to change, or not?”

Source: Adapted from adoptanegotiator.org

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EU Blocks Green Deal on Forests

On Thursday, a new text on REDD left out vital wording on protecting natural forests in the section on principles – safeguards. A host of nations from Ecuador and Brazil to India and the Philippines asked for its reinstatement on the grounds that protecting natural forests is what REDD is meant to be all about.

As Brazil said, if there is a single environmental safeguard that is required for REDD, it is to prevent the conversion of natural forests to plantations or other land use in order to avoid huge emissions and biodiversity loss. The facilitator considered that the point was well made and asked for permission to reinsert the text on conserving natural forests. He was opposed by the EU with the fuzzy explanation that this would create great instability in the negotiations.

ECO does not understand this objection to changing text in response to  statements made in plenary on the contents of text. In fact, ECO is in general deeply disturbed by the EU’s behaviour on forests over the past two weeks. As a result of their failing to reach internal agreement on forest management in LULUCF, the EU has allowed the worst possible accountancy options for forest management to be on the table for consideration. On REDD, the EU has blocked the inclusion of the
most basic principle required to make REDD environmentally effective.

So much for environmental integrity!

ECO wonders if the EU plans to insert something into the response measures text as their concern seems to be that the timber and oil palm industries might be badly  hit by a REDD regime that seeks to conserve forests instead of converting them
to plantations.

Saudi Back-to-Office Report

After returning from these negotiations, every delegation will have to write a Back-to-Office (BTO) report for their superiors.

As some may find this task time consuming, ECO has decided to fill in the BTO template for the Saudi Arabian delegation in particular. This we hope will give them more time to rethink their positions here and make them more constructive in Barcelona and Copenhagen.

Saudi Arabia BTO Report for UNFCCC Bangkok Session

Submitted to Ministry of Petroleum – October 2009

Objective (Obj.) 1: Hinder the adaptation discussion

Achievement: We continued to link response measures to adaptation and to then equate Saudi Arabia to Least Developed Countries. But somehow the GDP difference undermined
our argument.

Obj. 2: Exaggerate Saudi’s vulnerability to response measures

Achievement: We were making good progress, but an unexpected release of an International Energy Agency report proved that OPEC would actually make four times more money by 2030 under a 450ppm scenario (see table below). We tried to refute this in an interview but the journalists just did not buy it.

Obj. 3: Stall the process on procedural issues

Achievement: We blocked an extra informal negotiation session between Barcelona and Copenhagen. It was tough, since we were the only country that objected.

Obj. 4: Make sure the level of ambition is low

Achievement: Under Shared Vision, we said there was no need for a figure for the global goal. Unfortunately, we were the only country to promote this and it did not get picked up.

Obj. 5: Undermine the climate change science

Achievement: We said in a media interview that “developed countries are only using the guise of protecting the planet as a way to get at oil producers and reduce their dependency on oil imports.” Nevertheless, we REALLY need to stop doubting climate science, since there is almost total consensus on it and we did actually sign the Convention.

Number of Fossils Earned: Only two (but both in first place)

Comment: On this issue, we have performed below average due to the low level of ambition of developed countries which created fierce competition for fossils.

Overall Evaluation: The chances to reach an agreement in Copenhagen have been reduced substantially but mainly due to the low ambition of developed countries. This had double benefits for us. It helped us achieve our objectives and removed the spotlight from us.

Suggestions for Future Steps: We received positive remarks from Climate Action Network (CAN) members when we opposed nuclear energy and it actually felt good (although this was not our intention). Maybe in Barcelona we can bring our positions closer to CAN’s.

Norway Adopts 40%

Finally, a country has stepped up to adopt a target approaching the scale needed to avoid dangerous climate change. Congratulations Norway; your coalition Government’s target to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels makes you the leader amongst Annex I countries.

This announcement has made ECO very happy. To be honest, we have been getting glum lately. Endless meetings – driven to the verge of pointlessness by negotiators constrained by a lack of political will back home –  were taking its toll. Now, we finally have an example of the political will needed to move these negotiations forward. The big step up in Japan’s target from 8% emissions reduction below 1990 levels to 25%, even if not quite enough, is also cause for hope.

Norway’s target is an example of real leadership and a breath of fresh air. Even so, ECO urges Norway to make a strong commitment to domestic reductions and not just continue offsetting. But today is not the day to quibble.

So to the rest of Annex I countries, the challenge to your leaders is this: Are you going to match Norway’s target? You have less than a month to prove your calibre and bring a new, much stronger national target to Barcelona.

Homework for Barcelona

Many countries came to Bangkok with their homework done. Witness star pupil, Indonesia, which brought in strong commitments to cut its emissions well below business as usual. Other countries turned in their homework here in Bangkok. Norway, for example, committed to cutting its emissions 40% below 1990 levels as part of a global deal.

However, many countries clearly did not do their homework. To help these countries focus, ECO offers the following assignments so that everyone is clear about what needs to be done.

Australia

Please take this note to your Prime Minister, asking him to give you the mandate to agree to sufficient new and additional public funding for international climate finance, through multiple mechanisms under the authority of the COP. Bring it back signed to Barcelona. Try to give yourself space to take mitigation action at home, and push yourself to take the harder challenges – like reducing emissions from energy – rather than cheating your way to meet targets through LULUCF offsets. Indeed you should make a stronger effort to reduce logging emissions in LULUCF and use them to take a higher overall target.

EU

Two years ago you assumed a leadership role and put a conditional -30% target on the table. Since then it has become ever clearer that your target, although bold at the time, is no longer sufficient. You should follow Norway’s lead of 40% emissions reduction below 1990 levels by 2020. We have been waiting for some time for your finance package to be wrapped up into something you could bring to the UNFCCC. The Council meetings this month give you an opportunity to bring the EU’s fair share of the minimum US$160 billion of public finance needed per year to meet developing country needs for adaptation, clean technology and REDD.

United States

Tell your President that his next priority after health care has to be working with the leadership of the Senate to pass comprehensive climate and energy legislation including significant emissions cuts by 2020 and substantial dedicated funding for tropical forest protection, international adaptation and clean technology. Also, come to Barcelona with greater willingness to take on legally binding commitments both on emissions reduction and finance, and lose your irrational allergy to a meaningful compliance regime.

Japan

Develop HATOYAMA INITITATIVE. Include substantial, additional and predictable funding and its supporting financial mechanisms. Make clear that your 25% below 1990 levels reduction target for 2020 will be met primarily through domestic action, and will be linked only to other Parties moving ahead on the agreements made in the Bali Action Plan (BAP), and not conditioned on mandatory emissions reduction commitments by major developing countries. Come to Barcelona with detailed negotiating positions that enable you to fully engage in negotiations.

Canada

Get your act together. Strengthen your laughably weak target of 3% reductions by 2020 to something that actually reflects the science. Find out about this strange thing people keep calling “finance” to figure out how you can contribute your “fair share” (yes, the BAP has 4 pillars). In addition, stop digging Kyoto’s grave and listen to other countries that actually care about legally-binding instruments.

New Zealand

Increase your target to 40% below 1990 levels: a range of 0% to 20% is not enough and you know it. Stress domestic mitigation – without it your pleas for changes to the rules on LULUCF, target setting and markets just look like wriggling out of a responsibility. Make some decisions on financing and come to the table in Barcelona with significant new finance additional to overseas development assistance. Stop using agriculture as an excuse for inaction. Drop your efforts to weaken the emissions trading scheme by making it intensity-based with no absolute cap

G77 & China

You put forward constructive proposals on technology and finance last year. But it has been a while since we have seen your detailed, joint proposals. Your stance in Bangkok was more reactive than proactive. You are rightly demanding a lot from this process in terms of mitigation, technology, finance and adaptation. And the minimum threshold for real negotiations has yet to be met by Annex I as a whole. But in response to Annex 1 proposals on finance and mitigation, you resorted to (the laudable role of) defending past commitments.

The question is: How can you turn your common and well developed positions on finance and mitigation action into a more proactive role in Barcelona? It is now high time for you to take the lead by spelling out your vision of how nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) should work, and submit them as textual amendments.

South Africa has provided a useful example with its “Life-cycle of NAMAs and MRV process” proposal circulated last night in Non-paper No. 20. As a constructive response to the divisive proposal on mitigation from the US, this has opened negotiating space and helped turn the tables. By elaborating details of the “NAMA machinery” – (How will emissions cuts be expressed?)

How will proposed cuts be matched with funding? – that will be required for a fair and ambitious deal in Copenhagen, you will lose nothing and gain important leverage in these talks. The homework for you is to study South Africa’s submission, and develop a proposal on NAMAs consistent with the Bali Action Plan that can propel real negotiations in Barcelona.

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