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What price lives?

Thursday marked another unedifying exchange in the KP “numbers group.” Annex I parties were questioning their abilities to increase their targets. Also on the table were two very important architectural elements: the 1990 base year and the system of 5-year commitment periods.

Despite arguing rightly in the past that the cost of inaction is far higher than the cost of action, the EU’s first consideration in possibly moving beyond its strikingly inadequate -30% conditional target is the economy!

Rather than embracing rapid reductions as a means of avoiding climate impacts and its heavy economic consequences, the EU whinged that -30% was about all it could do, despite the reduction of emissions during the current recession easing the task.

The cost of achieving the -30% target is now estimated to be EURO 203 billion cheaper than the original 20% reduction was expected to be when first adopted, according to a Sandbag analysis, and there’s every reason to believe other countries can similarly increase the scale of effort for the same reason.

Further, New Zealand feels that spending 0.6% of their GDP would be a high price for contributing to saving the world’s life support systems. Iceland appeared willing to countenance a higher target, but only if it has access to LULUCF and offsets.

Japan felt its newly-enhanced target is enough and rejected outright the need for a science-based top-down target. Other developed countries remained noticeably silent.

It gets worse.  Countries that have done least to reduce their emissions were keenest to hide their failures using more recent base years. Canada admitted that 1990 “was important” but bleated that the US had chosen a 2005 base year for its domestic target discussion, and in any case, new countries   (so-called “major emitters”) joining Annex B might find 1990 a barrier for so doing.

So Canada not only wants to hide its own inaction, but simultaneously points its finger at developing countries to pick up the pieces. Japan, also a major underachiever and finger-pointer, wanted to see the developed countries targets “from different angles.”

But Micronesia provided new analysis that the targets on the table range from -10% to 17% by 2020 relative to 1990 levels ex-LULUCF.  (Note to Japan: whichever way you look at it, the targets on the table are somewhere between a quarter and a third of what is needed, as a minimum.)

On the length of the second commitment period, several countries held out for periods longer than the 5-year cycle established in Kyoto. One has to suspect the motives of those that would seek to decouple the negotiations from political cycles in many countries, and disallow frequent and regular review of commitments based on the most recent science, particularly that of the IPCC.  Those culpable in this regard included Japan (again!) and Australia (although they did say they were open to 5 years).

The EU joined the fray in favour of 8-year periods, but later expressed an intention to review its targets in light of the next IPCC Assessment Report (so why not internationally in a 5-year commitment period?).  Avoiding lock-in has to be an essential element of the architecture of the Copenhagen agreement.

Once a 5-year second commitment period is properly in place for 2013-2017, ECO recommends the following timetable for the 2018-2022 commitment period: Negotiations should begin no later than 2013, conclude no later than 2015 and be directed by a scientific review done in 2014 based on the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR5).

A Letter to Santa

The Christmas season has come early for developed countries who have been invited to present their Christmas wish lists for forest management at Copenhagen.  It has been two years since LULUCF negotiators started debating how to account for forest management in the next commitment period, in particular what baseline to use.

The result is a total failure of leadership from developed countries.  They will be coming to Copenhagen with a baseline of their choosing using their favorite loopholes to make absolutely sure that the forest management sector is subject to no pressure to reduce emissions.

This is terrible news for the climate. For example, Parties can set their baseline to include increased emissions from this sector, or they could disappear into a Bermuda Triangle for emissions called the “band to zero.”   Under this approach countries can earn credits but would only earn debits after their entire forest sink was reduced to zero.  This would not at all reflect what the atmosphere sees and could allow countries to degrade their natural forests without incurring any penalty.

This alarming failure of Annex I country leadership threatens to undermine the integrity of the climate deal.  If it remains unchanged, the only hope for environmental integrity in the LULUCF rules will rest with the scrutiny of non-Annex I parties and observers in Copenhagen.  But effective scrutiny will be difficult given the complexity of data and modeling involved for every country’s baseline.

ECO notes that naughty children are usually denied their wishes for Christmas and sees no reason why this year should be any different.  These LULUCF loopholes should be taken off the table as soon as possible.

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Healthier Climate Change Talks

Two organizations highlighted at a mid-week press conference that focusing on the health effects of climate change puts a human face on the negotiations.

Josh Karliner (Health Care Without Harm) and Genon Jensen (Health and Environment Alliance) presented Dr. Roberto Bertollini of the World Health Organization with a larger than life "Prescription for a Healthy Planet" endorsed by dozens of major international health organizations.  Among those supporting the diagnosis of a planet increasingly presenting the symptoms of a sick climate are the International Council of Nurses, representing nursing associations in 128 countries, the World Federation of Public Health Associations, and the Standing Committee of European Doctors, which brings together 27 national medical associations in countries.  When filled, the prescription will help negotiators strike a deal for a strong and legally binding agreement in Copenhagen.

Public health professionals are focusing on how extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods affect their patients and their work in poor and rich countries alike. Earlier this year, the Global Humanitarian Forum noted that increasingly severe heat waves, floods, storms and forest fires could push the annual death toll to 500,000 by 2030.  Research in Europe shows that heat waves increase death rates, especially among older people and those with breathing problems.

In contrast, reducing carbon emissions will bring positive health returns. For example, said Dr. Bertollini, “choosing policies that reduce carbon emissions bring positive returns for public health.  For example, developing sustainable public transport policies which encourage walking and cycling, and eating less red meat, can help mitigate climate change and also improve health."

The European Commission has estimated that a 20% reduction in carbon emissions from 1990 levels by 2020 could lead to savings on national health bills of up to EURO 51 billion in the EU alone. Research supported by CAN-Europe, the Health and Environment Alliance and WWF shows that savings would be increased to EURO 76 billion with a 30% reduction.

The Prescription for a Healthy Planet diagnoses the planet's problem as overconsumption of fossil fuels leading to global climate destabilization.  It calls on global leaders to protect public health, move to clean energy, reduce emissions and provide finance for global action.

In Europe, HEAL and HCWH are calling for a 40% reduction target and for the EU  to contribute at least EURO 35 billion per year to fund global action on climate change, of which a proportion should be allocated to the health sector.

These groups have urged negotiators to strengthen the health dimension in the current text. They will also lead a health delegation to Copenhagen where leading doctors, nurses, public health experts and a group of trainee doctors will be spreading the word in the halls and on the streets.

To be or not to be (binding)

So let us make sure we understand this correctly: the African Group, AOSIS, the G77, the EU, the UN and even the Umbrella Group want a legally binding instrument.

So where’s the problem?

It's true the acoustics are bad in the FIRA conference center, but ECO is quite sure it heard everybody saying that they want a legally binding instrument to be adopted in Copenhagen.  And yet, most of them are saying it can’t be done because “there isn’t enough time.”

Whatever happened to “where there’s a will, there a way”?

It is true that the delay in the US Senate provides the perfect excuse for those who say they want a deal but are really only stalling for more time. But more time do to what exactly? More time to allow emissions in both Annex I and  non-Annex I to grow even higher; more time to continue building inefficient cars and buildings; more coal plants; more deforestation.
So many climate disruptive activities, so little time (or is it too much time) . . . one has to admit this “time factor” has gotten us all confused.

Some delegates have even expressed disappointment at the lack of ambition by a certain chair who, not so long ago, was proudly displaying a “Mind the Gap” t-shirt.

Could it be, then, that Parties are having a hard time figuring out what it is they want to be legally binding.  In the course of the past few days, we’ve heard everyhing from a “politically binding agreement” (now there an oxymoron if we’re ever heard one), a “legally binding treaty,” and a “legally binding approach” to a “comprehensive universal agreement” (a real favourite) which would include, as ECO heard in one corridor conversation, future human colonies to be established on the Moon and Mars.

But in the interest of time (back again to haunt us), we should use what precious time e have left to do what is needed for the atmosphere, to sustain our respective national interests and, not least, to protect those who are and will be suffering the most from climate impacts.

In a recent response to a particularly short-sighted editorial in the Canadian Globe and Mail entitled “Targets set without a plan, and costs that are perilous”, the British High Commissioner to Canada, Anthony Cary, replied that “We can’t talk to the atmosphere.”  Need we say more?

A Convenient Truth


Never waste a good crisis, runs the adage. On Wednesday, the (IIASA) presented a new report outlining Annex I mitigation costs and potentials based on the effects of the economic crisis. The report uses post-crisis GDP projections based on the IEA’s 2009 world energy outlook.

Here are the headlines
•    In 2020 Annex I emissions are 6% below 1990 levels in the reference scenario.
•    The cost of implementing the most ambitious Annex 1 pledges would be  -0.03% to 0.01% of GDP.
•    The carbon price settles at EURO 3 per tonne.
•    An extra 10% reduction could be achieved at the same equilibrium carbon price (-27% instead of -17% from 1990).
•    Some country targets are well above their emissions in the reference scenario, which could create a new surplus of emissions rights.

In other words, it is now much easier to achieve the emission targets we need. The world is demand investments in the infrastructure of the 21st century – renewable energy, smart grids and mass transport. The economic transformation we need could become a job-generator for economies blacking out with systemic unemployment. And we can save our climate, which is set on a course to disaster.  So the economic crisis also turns out to be an opportunity, but this means making a choice.

For the benefit of parties, as an example here is a table of new economic models on the costs of the EU’s 30% reduction pledge, in the light of the crisis.

And what is true for the EU is true for Annex I as a whole: emissions caps developed for a pre-crisis world can easily been tightened again in a post-crisis world, to benefit both the climate and the economy.

A Little Clarity, Please

Now that the dust has mostly settled and Parties are back at the negotiating table in the KP track, it is a good moment to take stock and reflect on the African Group gambit earlier in the week.

An important result from Wednesday's plenary is that industrialized countries will put their emission reduction targets on the table with no further delays, including the portions that will be met through international offsets and from land use change and forestry.  It is truly amazing that after four years of negotiating the post-2012 regime this information isn't readily available.

Some Annex I countries haven't even tabled their overall targets yet.  (And ECO won't comment here on the non-Kyoto major developed country and whether they have numbers on the table.)

It is no wonder that many developing countries are feeling more than a little frustrated by the lack of progress on emission reductions commitments from rich countries.  If all developed countries actually delivered the requested information on their targets it would, at long last, provide the needed clarity on their opening bids, including how much of their effort will be domestic actions to reduce emissions, as well as how much will simply be bought from abroad.  And countries planning on achieving a large portion of their target from LULUCF credits could be queried for clarification on how they expect to do so without resorting to weak accounting rules that allow phantom credits.

The agreement to put these details on the table is an important moment in the negotiations. But mind you, what this development does not do is deliver actual decisions, like an aggregate target for developed countries. If that kind of progress isn't seen soon, no one should be surprised if frustrations rise further and tactics become bolder. Of course, further breakdowns, here and going forward in Copenhagen, can be avoided if developing countries see political leadership from their rich counterparts on the critical issues such as Annex I emission targets.

Linking Conditions for Human Dignity: Climate Protection and Human Rights

When the African Group raised the stakes in the KP plenary earlier this week, its representatives explained that the action was prompted by the serious human suffering already occurring in Africa due to climate change.  This was an important reminder that negotiators must preserve and strengthen human rights language in the negotiating text.

Human rights are the expression of the most basic conditions necessary for a life of dignity.  In that light, the link to climate impacts is obvious.  As the Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights concluded in a study released earlier this year, “Climate change-related impacts … have a range of implications for the effective enjoyment of human rights.”

The current negotiating text refers to the human rights implications of climate change as well as the need to protect vulnerable peoples.  This is a critical step in the right direction.  However, these references need to be fleshed out and strengthened.  Human rights must be central to the definition of both the problems created by climate change and their solutions.

The shared vision text explicitly recognizes that climate impacts “have a range of direct and indirect implications for the full and effective enjoyment of human rights.”  This welcome language should be strengthened by reaffirming that “human beings have the fundamental right to freedom, equality and adequate conditions of life, in an environment of a quality that permits a life of dignity and well-being,” as recognized in the Stockholm Declaration, which is itself referenced in the UNFCCC.  The shared vision should also emphasize that a successful international climate framework will require effective mechanisms for participation at the local, national and international levels, reinforcing Article 6 of the UNFCCC and the Rio Declaration.

The “four pillars” text must also include rights language.  The mitigation text should reiterate Parties’ existing obligations to respect, protect and promote human rights.  Similarly, negotiators must reinsert the reference to human rights obligations removed from the adaptation text in Bangkok, and strengthen text on spillover effects that would ensure that human rights, such as the right to food, guide efforts to identify and prevent such harms.  In addition, strengthening the paragraph on climate-induced migration and linking it to human rights would provide crucial protections for the millions likely to be displaced as a result of climate change.

The European and InterAmerican courts of human rights have both recognized that access to information and participation in decision-making are fundamental to protecting human rights in the context of environmental threats.  The text must therefore guarantee all relevant stakeholders the rights to information and participation for all relevant stakeholders, including free prior informed consent for indigenous and other communities in accordance with international obligations.

Last month, the government of the Maldives held an underwater cabinet meeting to highlight climate impacts that would threaten the right to statehood itself.  From Africa to the Alps to the Islands, the rights of vulnerable individuals and communities require explicit protection in the final Copenhagen agreement.

As Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey said in September, “It is essential from a human rights perspective that the Copenhagen accord not only ensures the reduction of dangerous greenhouse gas emissions, but also guarantees the participation of citizens.”

USA is named a 'Fossil' at UN climate talks

fossil of the day

Barcelona, Spain, November 4, 2009: At the halfway point of the UN climate talks in Barcelona this week, the USA was named as ‘Fossil of the Day’, with Canada coming in second, by a vote of the Climate Action Network International (CAN-I) – a global coalition of over 450 leading non-government organisations. The daily award is given to those nations judged to be the ‘best’ at blocking or stalling progress in the global climate negotiation that day.

The first-place 'Fossil Award' was given to the USA for delaying passage of domestic climate change legislation.


The US ratified the UN's 'Framework Convention on Climate Change' in 1992, promising to reduce its greenouse gases emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. But it has failed to meet this promise. The US delegation to the international negotiations now says they will follow the lead of the Congress – so the delay in climate legislation hamstrings the US delegation's negotiating ability.

Earlier this year, when the House of Representatives pushed forward climate legislation, it seemed likely that domestic legislation would be passed before the crucial Copenhagen climate summit this December. Recent delay tactics in the US Senate – boycotts and commissioning redundant economic analysis – leave the world wondering whether the US will get it done.

“Other countries – developed and developing alike – have moved forward, committing to emission reductions and advancing prospects of a global deal,” said Sara Svensson, a youth climate activist from Sweden.
“It is time for the US Administration and for those on Capitol Hill to get the job done. Their lack of action undermines international trust in the UN negotiations and endangers the prospects of reaching a global solution to climate change.”

The second-place 'Fossil of the Day' award was given to Canada, completing a picture of North-American delay tactics at the UN. The award was given for the announcement of Environment Minister Jim Prentice that, for a third time in so many years, Canada was going to postpone the adoption of the regulatory framework for large polluters in Canada – until after the Copenhagen Climate Summit.

As recently as September, Minister Prentice promised a full suite of regulatory policies by Copenhagen. This additional delay prompted CAN-I to send a message to Canada: "Third strike, you're out"...

The current Canadian commitment is to reduce it's GHG emissions by 3% below 1990 levels by the year 2020, falling well short of it's commitment under the Kyoto protocol. According to the UNFCCC, Canada has one of the worst emission records of all the industrialised world.

The satirical awards were presented in a game-show style ceremony – complete with a presenter adorned in a bright Spanish flamenco outfit – at the conclusions of the day's negotiations. is described as ‘the most fun you can have at a UN conference,’ where the dominant dress code is the grey suit.

Beyond Borders: Progress on a Global Level

Two experienced UNFCCC activists explain how to become “climate smarties” and create a fair, effective and ambitious global climate deal.

Generally, when we discuss the effects that greenhouse gases have on the world’s atmosphere, we prefer the term climate change. Global warming simply isn’t an accurate description. But we do like one thing about this description: it reminds us that the problem we face isn’t just local or national, it’s global. Humanity is experiencing a global problem -- and that problem requires a global solution.

The United Nations has a very important part to play in fighting climate change. It provides a forum for governments to work together, and hammer out solutions to international problems. Global problem- solving is a long, slow process -- and a thankless one a lot of the time. You may have read news articles about the countless international conferences on global warming and wondered what goes on at those meetings. Different nations bring competing agendas to the table; representatives from all nations must overcome language and cultural barriers; and national governments face pressures at home from business, organized labor, and opposition parties. The world’s glaciers may be receding faster than international agreements can move forward.

And yet, despite all the impediments, the world’s nations make progress. Even better, sometimes they enjoy huge successes, such as the international agreement to stop the destruction of the ozone layer. Our world today is a safer place because of global agreements.

Global agreements hold countries accountable for certain actions and give nations a set of rules enforced through United Nations international law.

The world’s governments have been struggling with climate change for more than 20 years. The process has been painfully slow, and those governments still have a lot to do. But, right from the start, every country (well, almost every country) agreed that no one nation can solve the problem of climate change alone.

Why Global Agreements Are Important

Countries can do a lot to tackle global warming individually, as we discuss in Chapter 10. But the problem is far too great, and the solutions are far too complex, for countries to attempt to address climate change on their own. Each country is responsible for a portion of greenhouse gas emissions and has the ability to reduce global emissions anywhere from a fraction of a percentage up to 25 percent. But it is only with a collective effort that global emission can be reduced 50 to 80 percent. The world needs a global agreement to reduce greenhouse emissions and fight climate change.

Excerpted from Global Warming for Dummies, Elizabeth May and Zoe Caron (John Wiley & Sons, 2008).

Hatoyama Initiative: Is That All There Is?

Is this it? Hope not.

When Prime Minister Hatoyama of Japan announced his “Hatoyama  Initiative” for financing developing country actions in his speech at the UN Summit in September, ECO was enthused about several of the principles laid out in his speech: "substantial, new and additional public and private financing" . . . "innovative mechanisms to be implemented in a predictable manner" . . . "an international system should be established under the auspices of the UN climate change regime."

Naturally, ECO was looking forward to hearing more about all this.  This Monday, there was an announcement from Japanese delegation about the Hatoyama Initiative as an input to the LCA finance informal group.

Frankly, this was a disappointment and it took a day or so to sink in.  First of all, the announcement lacked the drama ECO had anticipated, and the paper was not even distributed.  After finally acquiring and reading the text of the submission, things were even more puzzling.

Japan's proposal suggests establishing three funds and a 'dating agency.'  So far, so good.  But it does not address many of the crucial issues about financing, and it almost looks like they got hold of the US proposal and copied their homework from that.

For example, the proposal does not address the scale of the funds required, and so it falls short of the principle of "substantial, new and additional." It has a mixture of voluntary pledges and a levy on an offsetting mechanism – but relying on pledges is against the spirit of Bali.  Finally, Climate Change Funds and Green Enabling Environment Funds seem to be managed by existing institutions like the World Bank and GEF with guidance of COP.  But is this what "under the auspices of the UN climate change regime" means?

The government of Japan is said to be developing the proposal further.  And so, ever helpful and practical, ECO has one suggestion: let's come back to principles and rebuild this initiative from scratch. After all, Japan still has time to come up with a clearer, stronger proposal for Copenhagen.

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